top of page
Diseño sin título.png

The crisis does not distinguish species

September 28, 2022

AND

AND

n last September 25, the vote was carried out

vote to endorse the new “Family Code”. As has been mentioned in various press releases, including some of the publications that have been made on the Food Monitor Program portal, this family code includes some new provisions that are quite innovative in terms of recognizing various types of family and, in addition , recognizes socio-affective relationships that include same-sex couples, which allows the establishment of relationships between family members in the second degree of consanguinity, despite having custody disputes,  and determines the co-responsibility of food among the different members who have purchasing power to meet this need.

At first glance, both the content of the new code and its submission to a popular referendum give the impression of a renewal of the so-called "popular democracy", a product of the Revolution, although it is not, however, as had already been noted in editions previous acknowledgments of the situation of many family nuclei that are not made up in the manner of the traditional family, is a de jure Recognition, of a de facto situation already established for a long time.

These "advances" in terms of legal recognition of part of the population in Cuba do not solve the most crucial problem of family composition. Despite recognition of people in vulnerable conditions: minors, the elderly, people with disabilities, etc., to whom sections are dedicated, there is no effective provision in terms of assistance.Despite including the word "disability" 92 times in the new Code, as well as including the word "food" 92 times, for practical purposes, this code recognizes the inability of the guardianship of the State to provide a service that from the beginning of the Revolution was one of the greatest flags of the Regime: nobody goes hungry in Cuba.

And it is that the situation of food insecurity does not give up. The rise in the price of the dollar   on the international currency market, which is due, among other things, to the increase in interest rates proposed by the United States Federal Reserve, _cc781905-5cde -3194-bb3b-136bad5cf58d_ya has a strong impact on the chicken and flour market for Cuban households that translates into price inflation.The exchange rate exceeded the indicators of the Special Period, reaching 150 Cuban pesos (CUP) per dollar, affecting the exchange rate of the MLC and the Euro, which is dizzyingly close to 200 CUP in both cases.Despite the fact that there are apparently favorable provisions for Cuban families, what the new Family Code actually manifests is the State's inability to provide the right to food. In a more or less direct way, the State transfers the problem of food to society, but it still does not grant the openings and freedoms necessary to be able to guide a free market or mixed economy that has the necessary conditions to be sustainable.

It is worth saying that the State has begun to have new measures so that small and medium-sized companies in the non-state sector (euphemism to say private) can produce and export some staple foods. Thinking about the future, the regime is looking to create the conditions so that these companies can compete on an equal footing with State exporting companies. In reality, as CubaNet reported last month, it is a reconversion of established companies, most of them state-owned, and the implementation of a cumbersome process for private companies, which surely will not have the possibility of participating on equal terms. conditions due to the procedures to which they must be submitted.

And the endorsement of the Code comes with sinister omens. Material responsibilities are transferred when the capacity of the State will face the greatest tensions to its diminished power. Already with an approval of 66%, its own supply remains in the hands of society. In the middle of the cyclone season, Ian is approaching the western part of the island, already with "lethal for people" winds and with the certainty that it will make landfall near the capital, according to the report of theNational Hurricane Center from United States. According to this analysis, floods, landslides and heavy rains are expected in this part of Cuba. It will be necessary to add, then, to the power cuts, difficulties for the terrestrial supply, of drinking water and other essential services for the Cuban society. This, without counting the forecast of material damage and the potential loss of life, human and animal, that hurricane winds can bring.

This symptom of trying to resolve material situations through legal means is a sign of the weakening of the State and, eventually, it could be the door for more demonstrations in the remainder of 2022.

El aumento salarial tampoco corrigió la brecha. El mínimo pasó de 2 100 a 3 210 CUP, un incremento cercano al 53 %. Sin embargo, frente al antiguo límite legal de 990 CUP, un precio de 4 000 equivale a más de cuatro veces aquella referencia; 7 000 equivale a más de siete veces. La actualización del ingreso quedó rezagada antes de reflejarse plenamente en los pagos de agosto.

La respuesta municipal agravó la incoherencia. Moa, Banes y Guantánamo fijaron una referencia de 2 200 CUP y anunciaron sanciones para quienes la excedieran. Llamarla referencia no modifica su efecto cuando el incumplimiento puede terminar en decomiso, venta forzosa o cierre. Además, Girón advirtió que ese mecanismo puede estimular más escasez.

El problema es aritmético. Si un comerciante compra a 3 500 CUP, como relataron vendedores de Holguín, no puede vender a 2 200 de manera sostenida. Puede retirarse, ocultar el producto o moverlo al mercado informal. 14ymedio documentó la desaparición de mercancías y el cierre de negocios, mientras periodistas de Invasor admitieron que los topes terminan convertidos en letra muerta. El control administrativo puede bajar el precio escrito y, al mismo tiempo, reducir la posibilidad de comprar.

La distancia entre la estadística y la compra efectiva también merece atención. En julio, el IPC oficial aumentó 2,56 % mensual, 15,12 % en el acumulado anual y 20,70 % interanual. Dentro de los alimentos, la prensa citó registros oficiales del aceite entre 1 400 y casi 2 800 CUP, mientras en la calle Galiano se ofrecía a 4 500. Esa diferencia, recogida por 14ymedio, limita la capacidad del índice para describir el costo que enfrenta quien solo encuentra el producto en circuitos informales.

 

Cuando el aceite deja de ser accesible, la dieta y las formas de preparación cambian. CubaNet registró manteca de cerdo entre 1 400 y 1 700 CUP la libra. Otros reportes mostraron colas para comprar grasa animal y el caso de una madre que cocinó un huevo en agua por falta de aceite. La política de precios termina así dentro de la cocina: determina qué se compra, cómo se prepara y qué se deja de comer.

La eliminación de un tope puede corregir un precio ficticio, pero sus resultados deben evaluarse con tres preguntas: cuánto aumentó la oferta, cuántos hogares conservaron capacidad de compra y qué reglas enfrentan importadores y vendedores. Hasta ahora, los reportes disponibles muestran precios más visibles, ingresos rezagados y reglas contradictorias entre el nivel nacional y los municipios. No ofrecen evidencia suficiente de una recuperación sostenida del abastecimiento.

Una política defendible requiere, al menos, información pública sobre volúmenes importados, costos y precios efectivos; reglas estables que no cambien según la presión de cada semana; y transferencias focalizadas que se actualicen con el costo de los alimentos. También requiere acceso previsible a divisas y condiciones para ampliar la oferta. Sin esos componentes, la flexibilidad de precios traslada el ajuste al consumidor y el control posterior vuelve a esconderlo en la escasez.

El límite de 990 CUP no garantizó aceite. El precio de 7 000 tampoco acredita el funcionamiento de un mercado. La referencia municipal de 2 200 repite una fórmula que el propio Gobierno declaró fallida. Entre esas tres cifras queda el hogar que recibe 3 210 CUP al mes y debe decidir cuánto puede cocinar. Mientras un litro cueste un salario completo o más, cualquier reforma de precios seguirá incompleta.

bottom of page